INVESYS

With Nifty & Sensex coming down from highs of Jan 2018 and lot of portfolios having retraced 20-30% from top, there is lot of confusion as to where market is headed. The opinion is split down the middle. Bull camp is treating this is mere correction in on going BULL market and expect to hit new highs in coming months. Bear camp is sure that this is beginning of Long BEAR market and we are getting target from 9000 till all the way down to 6000.  We will try to analyse, in this article, How the Beginning of Bear Market looks like and when we get confirmation of Bear market. For the purpose of analysis, we will be looking at SENSEX chart since 1990 on Monthly Time Frame. Also, we will be using Two Technical Analysis Indicators for our analysis :A) RSI - Relative Strength Index (14, S,9) & B) SMA - Simple Moving Average (10) .The Indicators are plotted on monthly chart. First, let's define a Bear Market in Indian Context. As per International Definition of Bear market

Nifty has been maintaining key support levels and making higher top higher bottom structure since post- demonetisation rally started in Dec 2016. Alas..All good things have to come to an end at certain time. In all previous corrections, Nifty was finding support at 60SMA and bouncing from those levels to make new highs. This time around, though Nifty found support around 60 SMA, the bounce from those levels was feeble and week.Today, in spite of all positive global cues , Nifty chose to head south. The twin supports of 10276 and 10302 established in Feb 2018 were broken convincingly. We may get to know the reason subsequently but downtrend is firmly established and it is here to stay for next few months. There are important support down the line like Weekly 50SMA support around 9950 and major support levels of 9685. Expect nifty to test 9685 in couple of months. If you are long, reduce your equity holdings and wait for correction to get over. However, don't catch falling knif